NOVEL FOODS, THE ENVIRONMENT, AND CONSUMER CHOICE

This dissertation explores critical issues at the intersection of consumer behavior, market dynamics, and environmental impacts in the context of emerging and evolving food systems. Through three complementary studies, it examines consumer preferences and market responses to plant-based, cultivated, and downsized food products, highlighting their implications for sustainability and market strategies.

The first chapter evaluates the environmental consequences of increased demand for plant-based meat alternatives (PBMs) using an equilibrium displacement model (EDM). By linking supply and demand across domestic and foreign meat, crop, and land markets, the study simulates a 20\% rise in PBM demand and its effects on water use, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions. Results suggest that the environmental benefits are modest due to the inelastic nature of meat supply and the limited market share of PBMs. This chapter underscores the need for nuanced modeling of agricultural inputs to assess the potential of PBMs in mitigating the environmental footprint of meat production.

The second chapter investigates consumer demand for cultivated meat, focusing on novel and exotic options such as lion and elephant, alongside common meats like beef and chicken. Using a discrete choice experiment, the study examines whether cultivated versions of exotic meats are more acceptable to consumers compared to their conventional counterparts. Findings reveal that while cultivated exotic meats may achieve parity with their conventional equivalents in market share, the overall demand for exotic products remains low. This chapter provides insights into consumer willingness to embrace cultivated meat technology and the role of novelty in shaping market dynamics.

The third chapter analyzes consumer responses to package downsizing (i.e. the reduction of product size without a corresponding price decrease) using the synthetic control method (SCM). Focusing on a major downsizing event in the peanut butter market, it evaluates changes in volume and revenue market shares. The results indicate an initial consumer backlash followed by adaptation, with revenue shares remaining relatively stable. However, significance tests suggest that these effects cannot be causally attributed to downsizing, highlighting the complexities of consumer behavior in response to subtle price increases.