<b>A Two-Model Linear Programming Analysis of Onion Cold-Storage Profitability in Bangladesh</b>

<p dir="ltr">This thesis investigates the economic viability of cold storage for onion farmers in Bangladesh, where high post-harvest losses and seasonal price collapses undermine farmer incomes. The research asks: under what market conditions does cold storage become profitable, and how should its use be priced to reflect its economic value? Weekly farm-gate onion price data (2022–2024) from the Bangladesh Ministry of Agriculture is used to forecast 2025 prices and simulate cold storage decisions under varying market scenarios. The novelty of this study lies in the development of a two-stage linear programming framework that incorporates perishability, seasonal price variation, and capacity constraints. The first model derives shadow prices to estimate the marginal value of storage, while the second model applies a utilization-weighted shadow price as a weekly service fee to simulate farmer decision-making under realistic pricing. Forecasting is performed using Holt-Winters exponential smoothing, and inventory attrition is modeled linearly. Results show that cold storage is profitable under conditions of sufficient price volatility and that a storage fee of approximately 1.56 Tk/kg/week allows for profitable use despite attrition losses. The findings suggest strong potential for cold storage investment to stabilize prices, reduce waste, and improve farmer profitability. This framework can guide service pricing and infrastructure investment in other perishable supply chains.</p>