From Transit to Table: A Spatial Causal Analysis of Transportation Accessibility and Restaurant Patronage

This study examines the causal relationship between transportation accessibility and restaurant patronage using high-resolution, restaurant-level data from Chicago. Seasonal variation in walkable distance is exploited as a quasi-natural experiment, and restaurant fixed effects are incorporated to control for unobserved heterogeneity and seasonal demand fluctuations. Spatial autoregressive models are employed to capture the spatial interdependence in patronage across neighboring restaurants. The findings indicate that accessibility, particularly parking availability, significantly affects restaurant visits. These effects are most pronounced for full-service restaurants, which are more sensitive to access-related constraints due to their experiential, destination-oriented nature. In addition, improvements in accessibility generate spillover benefits, increasing patronage at nearby establishments and reinforcing localized dining clusters. This research advances the food-away-from-home literature by integrating spatial econometrics and causal inference, and it offers practical implications for urban planners and restaurant operators seeking to align infrastructure and business strategy to support restaurant demand.